Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change

 

A pair of edited proceedings were produced for a symposium organized by the International Commission on Coupled Land–Atmosphere Systems (ICCLAS), supported by other IAHS commissions, programmes and working groups (ICSW, PUB, IAMAS, WCRP, CLIVAR, GEWEX, WMO/ UNESCO WCP-Water, and HELP), and held at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, in April 2005. The contents of both are listed here; the preface and abstracts of the papers in each can be seen at www.iahs.info.

Global climate variability and change threaten local water resource availability in many regions on Earth. The effects of natural climate variability and of anthropogenic change are particularly felt in less developed countries where flood and drought often result in substantial loss of life and livelihood. Coupled with the marked decline in observational networks, there is a critical need for reliable information relevant to hazard mitigation and water resource management. The usefulness of hydrological science in helping decision makers understand and cope with the impacts of climate variability and change needs to be assessed.

The importance of this topic is reflected in the large number of contributions to the symposium. Selected papers have been compiled into two volumes. In each, the papers are grouped geographically; the symposium’s emphasis on less developed countries is reflected in the many papers from Asia and South America.

Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change
Impact Assessment and Decision Making

Edited by Thorsten Wagener, Stewart Franks,
Hoshin V. Gupta, Eva Bøgh, Luis Bastidas,
Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão

Publ. 295 (2005)

ISBN 1-901502-08-2; 356 + x pp.
Price £58.50

Considers the assessment of the hydrological impacts of future climate and then addresses decision making for mitigation/adaptation strategies, given the uncertainties associated with predictions by water resources and hydrological extremes models.

Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change
Hydroclimatic Variability

Edited by Stewart Franks, Thorsten Wagener,
Eva Bøgh, Hoshin V. Gupta, Luis Bastidas &
Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão

Publ. 296 (2005)

ISBN 1-901502-13-9; 300 + x pp
Price £58.50

This volume brings together diverse investigations from different climate zones and regions, many of the papers focusing on historic variability as a function of climate and/or land-use change.

Contents

Preface
by Stewart Franks, Thorsten Wagener, Eva Bøgh, Hoshin V. Gupta, Luis Bastidas, Carlos Nobre & Carlos de Oliveira Galvão

v

 

Background and Summary
Regional hydrological impacts of climate change—hydroclimatic variability
Stewart Franks & Thorsten Wagener

1

1

South America

 

Observed and modelled historical hydroclimatic variability in South America: cases of the Amazon, São Francisco and Paraná–La Plata rivers
Jose A. Marengo (Invited)

7

Discharge variability within the Amazon basin
J. Ronchail, D. Labat, J. Callède, G. Cochonneau, J. L. Guyot, N. Filizola & E. de Oliveira

21

2

Oceania

 

Hazard warning! Hydrological responses in the Fiji Islands to climate variability and severe meteorological events
James Terry

33

Multi-decadal variability of rainfall and streamflow across eastern Australia
Danielle C. Verdon, Adam M. Wyatt, Anthony S. Kiem & Stewart W. Franks

42

Identification of oscillations in historical global streamflow data using empirical mode decomposition
Francis H. S. Chiew, Murray C. Peel, Gnanathikkam E. Amirthanathan & Geoffrey G. S. Pegram

53

3

North America and Europe

 

Multi-annual fluctuations in precipitation and their hydrological and ecological consequences in regional scale
Krzysztof Blazejczyk, Wieslawa Kasperska-Wolowicz, Leszek Labedzki & Anna Kunert

65

Change detection in high river flows in Europe
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

71

Influence of climate variability on water resources in the Bulgarian South Black Sea basin
Bernardo Lizama Rivas & Ivanka Koleva-Lizama

81

Modelling hydrological responses of the Athabasca River basin to climate change by the Modified ISBA Land Surface Scheme
Ernst Kerkhoven & Thian Yew Gan

89

Climate, water and renewable energy in the Nordic countries
Árni Snorrason & Jóna Finndís Jónsdóttir

102

A distributed real-time semiarid flash-flood forecasting model utilizing radar data
Soni Yatheendradas, Thorsten Wagener, Hoshin Gupta, Carl Unkrich, Mike Schaffner & David Goodrich

108

Evaluation of the effect of selective logging on the energy-water and carbon exchange processes
Rafael Rosolem, Luis A. Bastidas, W. James Shuttleworth, Luis G. Goncalves De Goncalves, Eleanor J. Burke, Humberto R. Da Rocha, Scott D. Miller & Michael L. Goulden

118

4

Africa

 

Modèle de transformation pluie–débit basé sur le Principe de Moindre Action
A. Afouda, E. A. Lawin, T. Lebel, C. Peugeot & L. Seguis

129

Storage capacity and long-term water balance of the Volta Basin, West Africa
Jan Friesen, Marc Andreini, Winston Andah, Barnabas Amisigo & Nick van de Giesen

138

Vulnerabilité climatique et ses consequences sur les ecoulements du fleuve Sénégal
Alioune Kane

146

Changements des régimes hydrologiques des rivières du sud-Cameroun: un impact de la variabilité climatique en zone équatoriale
Gaston Liénou, Gil Mahé, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Eric Servat, Hélène Lubès-Niel, Daniel Sighomnou, Georges Emmanuel Ekodeck & Alain Dezetter

158

Sensibilité des cours d’eau ouest-africains aux changements climatiques et environnementaux: extrêmes et paradoxes
Gil Mahé, Jean Claude Olivry & Eric Servat

169

Long-term trends of heavy rainfall in South Africa
J. G. Ndiritu

178

Impact of a long drought period on a large carbonate aquifer: the Liassic aquifer of the Sais plain and Middle Atlas plateau (Morocco)
Fouad Amraoui, Moumtaz Razack & L. Houssaine Bouchaou

184

Évaluation des impacts du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau d’Afrique de l’Ouest et Centrale
S. Ardoin-Bardin, A. Dezetter, E. Servat, G. Mahé, J. E. Paturel, C. Dieulin & L. Casenave

194

How changing rainfall regimes may affect the water balance: a modelling approach in West Africa
Matthieu Le Lay & Sylvie Galle

203

Spatial disaggregation of Sahelian rain fields: a new application of the Gibbs sampler
Hubert Onibon, Thierry Lebel, Abel Afouda & Gilles Guillot

211

5

Asia

 

Predicting Central Asia river flows from regional precipitation and wind patterns during the preceding cold season
Mathew Barlow & Michael Tippett

221

Precipitation trends and their impact on the discharge of China’s four largest rivers, 1951–1998
Ye Baisheng, Li Chong, Yang Daqing, Ding Yongjian & Shen Yongping

228

Geostatistical analysis of observed streamflow and its response to precipitation and temperature changes in the Yellow River
Guobin Fu & Shulin Chen

238

Impacts of ENSO on monthly precipitation in South Korea and Fukuoka, Japan
Akira Kawamura, Young-Hoon Jin, Kenji Jinno & Ronny Berndtsson

246

Relationship between ENSO and snow covered area in the Mekong and Yellow river basins
Anthony S. Kiem, Mikhail V. Geogievsky, Hapuarachchige P. Hapuarachchi, Hiroshi Ishidaira & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

255

Impact of natural variability and anthropogenic factors on the flood events in northeastern India
U. C. Sharma & Vikas Sharma

265

Recent trend in spatiotemporal variation of rainfall over India—an investigation into basin-scale rainfall fluctuations
Nityanand Singh, Neelima A. Sontakke, H. Narendra Singh & Amit Kumar Pandey

273

Modelling the spatial distribution of actual terrestrial evapotranspiration using a hydrological and meteorological approach
Che-Sheng Zhan, Jun Xia, Zhao-Liang Li & Cun-Wen Niu

283

Downscaling atmospheric circulation data for monsoon rainfall forecasting in India
Anupam K. Singh, Erwin Zehe & Andras Bardossy

291

Key word index

299