Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty for Sustainable Water Resources Management

Edited by Eva Boegh, Harald Kunstmann, Thorsten Wagener, Alan Hall, Luis Bastidas,

 Stewart Franks, Hoshin Gupta, Dan Rosbjerg & John Schaake

IAHS Publ. 313 (2007)  ISBN 978-1-90150278-09-1   508 + iv pp. price £87.00    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


The atmosphere is the primary driving force for all hydrological processes, yet the availability of spatially and temporally reliable hydrometeoro­logical information remains a critical issue in many hydrological studies. The problem is made more urgent by the suggestion that a warmer climate will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, and to an increase in the frequency of extreme events. In order to accurately represent and understand the impact of climate dynamics on the development of freshwater resources, water manage­ment tools that account for the coupled land–atmosphere system are needed. Indeed, the derivation of spatially and temporally representative hydromet­eorological data and their accurate representation in water manage­ment tools is important to predict current and future develop­ments in freshwater resources, and the influence of changing climate and land surface patterns due to intens­ified human activities.

 

The contributions in this volume consider the uncertainties in the end-to-end prediction of hydrological variables, beginning with the atmospheric driving, and ending with the hydrological calculations for scientifically-sound decisions in sustainable water management. The book is organized in two main parts; the first addresses the Quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty in hydrometeorological forcing, and the second includes studies aiming at Minimizing risks in water management decisions by improving the understanding and spatial representation of the coupled land–atmosphere system.

 

Contents

 

Preface  by Eva Boegh, Harald Kunstmann, Thorsten Wagener, Alan Hall,
Luis Bastidas, Stewart Franks, Hoshin Gupta, Dan Rosbjerg & John Schaake

v

1

 

1.1

QUANTIFICATION AND REDUCTION OF PREDICTIVE UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL FORCING

Meteorological prediction and uncertainty

 

Reducing uncertainty in selecting climate models for hydrological impact assessments  A. J. Pitman & S. E. Perkins

3

Multi-model climate change scenarios for southwest Western Australia and potential impacts on streamflow  Guobin Fu & Stephen P. Charles

16

Propagation of convection in Africa: implications for predictability of precipitation  Arlene Laing, Richard Carbone & Vincenzo Levizzani

24

GPS and satellite meteorology for understanding monsoon dynamics over the Indian sub-continent  Anup K. Prasad, Ramesh P. Singh, Shatrughan Singh & Dip S. Nanda

33

Linking the West African monsoon’s onset with atmospheric circulation patterns Patrick Laux, Harald Kunstmann & András Bárdossy

40

A multi-index approach to inflow prediction for water resources management  Stewart W. Franks & Adam M. Wyatt

51

1.2

Spatial climate data and uncertainty

 

Space–time representativity of precipitation for rainfall–runoff modelling: experience from some case studies  Uwe Haberlandt, Anna-Dorothea Ebner von Eschenbach, Aslan Belli & Christian Gattke

61

Uncertainty characterization in a combined IR/microwave scheme for remote sensing of precipitation  Carlo De Marchi, Aris Georgakakos &
Christa Peters-Lidard

70

Empirically-based generator of synthetic radar-rainfall data  Gabriele Villarini, Witold F. Krajewski & Grzegorz J. Ciach

78

Uncertainties in water balance estimations due to scarce meteorological information: a case study for the White Volta catchment in West Africa  
Sven Wagner, Harald Kunstmann & Andras Bardossy

86

Assessment of rainfall and evaporation input data uncertainties on simulated runoff in southern Africa  Tendai Sawunyama & Denis Hughes

98

1.3

Hydrological predictions using integrated climate–hydrological modelling

 

GEWEX Hydrology  Alan J. Hall, Richard G. Lawford, John O. Roads,
John C. Schaake & Eric F. Wood

109

Hydrological predictability investigation of global data sets for high-latitude river basins  Yeugeniy M. Gusev, Olga N. Nasonova, Larisa Y. Dzhogan &
Yeugeniy E. Kovalev

127

Integrated atmospheric and hydrologic modelling for short-term and basin-scale forecasts in a tropical semi-arid context  Ana Cláudia Braga, Carlos O. Galvão, Enio P. Souza, Enilson P. Cavalcanti, Renato Fernandes & Klécia Oliveira

134

Regional climate change in the Middle East and impact on hydrology in the Upper Jordan catchment  Harald Kunstmann, Peter Suppan, Andreas Heckl &
Alon Rimmer

141

Modelling regional climate change and the impact on surface and sub-surface hydrology in the Volta Basin (West Africa)  G. Jung & H. Kunstmann

150

Monthly streamflow forecasts for the State of Ceará, Brazil  Dirceu S. Reis Jr, Eduardo S. Martins, Luiz Sérgio V. Nascimento, Alexandre A. Costa &
Alan M. B. Alexandre

158

Coupling meteorological and hydrological models for medium-range streamflow forecasts in the Paraná Basin  Walter Collischonn, Daniel Allasia,
Carlos E. M. Tucci & Adriano R. Paz

167

1.4

Uncertainty in hydrological forecasting

 

Experimental hydrometeorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts and their verification in the US National Weather Service  Julie Demargne, Limin Wu, Dong-Jun Seo & John Schaake

177

Adjusting ensemble forecast probabilities to reflect several climate forecasts 
Jery R. Stedinger & Young-Oh Kim

188

“Outlier” catchments: what can we learn from them in terms of prediction uncertainty in rainfall–runoff modelling?  Nicolas Le Moine, Vazken Andréassian, Charles Perrin & Claude Michel

195

Understanding sources of uncertainty in flash-flood forecasting for semi-arid regions  Thorsten Wagener, Hoshin Gupta, Soni Yatheendradas, David Goodrich, Carl Unkrich & Mike Schaffner

204

Long-term probabilistic forecasting of snowmelt flood characteristics and the forecast uncertainty  Lev Kuchment & Alexander Gelfan

213

Predictive uncertainty in climate change impacts on floods  Martijn J. Booij, Martijn Huisjes & Arjen Y. Hoekstra

221

2

 

 

2.1

MINIMIZING RISKS IN WATER MANAGEMENT DECISIONS BY IMPROVING THE UNDERSTANDING AND SPATIAL REPRESENTATION OF THE COUPLED LAND–ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

Hydrological predictions using spatial data and integrated land surface–atmosphere–hydrology modelling

 

AMMA forcing data for a better understanding of the West African monsoon surface–atmosphere–hydrology interactions  A. Boone & P. deRosnay

231

Improved scenario prediction by using coupled hydrological and atmospheric models  Jesper Overgaard, Michael B. Butts & Dan Rosbjerg

242

Representativeness of point soil moisture observations, upscaling and assimilation  Gabriëlle J. M. De Lannoy, Valentijn R. N. Pauwels, Paul R. Houser, Timothy Gish & Niko E. C. Verhoest

249

Can a land surface model simulate runoff with the same accuracy as a hydrological model?  Olga N. Nasonova & Yeugeniy M. Gusev

258

Water balance evaluation in Denmark using remote sensing-driven land surface modelling and spatially distributed hydrological modelling  Eva Boegh,
Britt S. B. Christensen & Lars Troldborg

266

Comparing model performance of the HBV and VIC models in the Rhine basin  Aline Te Linde, Ruud Hurkmans, Jeroen Aerts & Han Dolman

278

Analysis of water resource variability over the irrigated area along the downstream reach of the Yellow River  Huimin Lei, Dawen Yang, Xinbing Liu & Shinjino Kanae

286

Water consumption of Populus euphratica woodlands in an arid region of China  Yonghua Zhu, Liliang Ren & Haishen Lü

294

2.2

Geographical transferability of methods and predictions in ungauged basins

 

Testing similarity indices to reduce predictive uncertainty in ungauged basins  Ludovic Oudin, Vazken Andréassian, Claudia Rojas-Serna, Nicolas Le Moine & Claude Michel

303

The use of physical basin properties and runoff generation concepts as an aid to parameter quantification in conceptual type rainfall–runoff models 
Denis Hughes & Evison Kapangaziwiri

311

Regionalization of parameters of hydrological models: inclusion of model parameter uncertainty  Satish Bastola, Hiroshi Ishidaira & Kuniyoshi Takeuchi

319

Regionalization for uncertainty reduction in flows in ungauged basins 
Martijn J. Booij, Dave L. E. H. Deckers, Tom H. M. Rientjes & Maarten S. Krol

329

 

Assessment of the watershed yield of the Sakarya River basin, Turkey 
Sabahattin Isik & Vijay P. Singh

338

Applicability of the GIUH model to estimate flood peaks from ungauged catchments in arid areas – a case study for the West Bank  Ammar Jarrar, Niranjali Jayasuriya, Anan Jayyousi & Maazuza Othman

346

Prediction of rainfall–runoff model parameters in ungauged catchments 
M. Zvolenský, K. Hlavčová, S. Kohnová & J. Szolgay

357

Multilevel river classification as the methodological basis for analysis of maximum runoff values in different geographical regions  Elena Asabina

365

The Xinanjiang model from the perspective of PUB  Liliang Ren, Fei Yuan, Zhongbo Yu, Xiaoli Yang, Rulin Ouyang & Xianghu Li

374

2.3

Meteorological predictions and data assimilation for flood risk management

 

Integrating meteorological and uncertainty information in flood forecasting: the FLOODRELIEF project  Michael B. Butts, Anne Katrine V. Falk,
Yunqing Xuan & Ian D. Cluckie

385

Reducing the uncertainty of flood forecasts using multi-objective optimization algorithms for parameter estimation  Yan Wang, Christian Gattke &
Andreas Schumann

398

Effects of soil moisture parameterization on a real-time flood forecasting system based on rainfall thresholds  Giovanni Ravazzani, Marco Mancini,
Ilaria Giudici & Paolo Amadio

407

Estimation of extreme flow quantiles and quantile uncertainty for ungauged catchments  Donald H. Burn, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda & Chang Shu

417

Peak flow estimation under parameter uncertainty in a real-time flood warning system for ungauged basins  Daniela Biondi & Pasquale Versace

425

2.4

Integrated water management systems for sustainable water management

 

Demonstrating Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for northern California in an operational environment  K. P. Georgakakos,
N. E. Graham,
A. P. Georgakakos & H. Yao

439

Coping with predictive uncertainties in optimization of sustainable water resources  Chin Man Mok, Nisai Wanakule, Armen Der Kiureghian,
Steven M. Gorelick & Miao Zhang

445

RNN-based inflow forecasting applied to reservoir operation via implicit stochastic optimization  Camilo Allyson Simões De Farias, Akihiro Kadota, Alcigeimes B. Celeste & Koichi Suzuki

452

Effect of uncertainties on the real-time operation of a lowland water system in The Netherlands  Steven Weijs, Elgard van Leeuwen, Peter-Jules van Overloop & Nick van de Giesen

463

Data assimilation in a large-scale distributed hydrological model for medium-range flow forecasts  Adriano Rolim Da Paz, Walter Collischonn,
Carlos E. M. Tucci, Robin T. Clarke & Daniel Allasia

471

Predictive models of reservoir storage-yield-reliability functions: inter-comparison of regression and multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network paradigms  Adebayo Adeloye

479

Analyse des périodes sèches pour la gestion d’un barrage au nord de la Tunisie / Analysis of dry periods for dam operation in northern Tunisia  Mathlouthi Majid & Lebdi Fethi

487

Hydrological simulation and prediction for environmental change 
Jian Yun Zhang, Zhiyu Liu & Chuanbao Zhu

497

Key word index

505